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Researchers analyze BTC profitability and predictability

A team of researchers studied the value of technical analysis in predicting bitcoin’s future price movements. Simple trading techniques that rely on the moving averages (MAs) were found to be significant in predicting the future of bitcoin price.

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A group of researchers have conducted a research study to identify the value of technical bitcoin price analysis in predicting future bitcoin price movements. They analyzed price movements via studying various Moving Averages (MAs). A team of five researchers, from different universities in the US and China, grouped up to analyze the most volatile trading asset in the world.

Bitcoin is described as an unpredictable asset by the majority of financial experts, and most blame its speculative nature for its price volatility. However,  bitcoin’s return on investment (ROI) can exceed that of any other investment asset in the world.

As stated in the research paper, one dollar invested in bitcoin on October 27th, 2010, generated a staggering return of $193,000 by December 12th, 2017. In comparison, investing the very same amount in the S&P500 stock index, during the same period, generated only about $2.5. Observing the high difference in returns, one can see why investors are pouring their money in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The researchers explain that technical indicators can be used to predict the prices of cryptocurrencies, the same way they are used to predict the prices of stock. They provided one of the first equilibrium models applicable to non-fundamental assets such as bitcoin.

To collect bitcoin price data, necessary for testing their model, they relied on Coindesk.com due to the fact that it is often cited by the Wall Street Journal as a source for bitcoin-related information. Price data from July 18th, 2010 to December 12th, 2017 was collected by the researchers, and then used to test their model and analyze its correctness.

The research paper concludes that the price of Bitcoin is predictable by technical analysis and technical indicators, especially the 5 day and 100 day moving averages (MAs). A trading strategy, which relies on technical analysis of bitcoin price charts, is more effective and profitable than the buy-and-hold strategy adopted by most investors.

Bitcoin is attracting more and more mainstream attention these days. In times like this, it is important for it, to have a sense of predictability.

This would give bitcoin an image of orderliness. Investors definitely prefer assets with reasonable levels of price predictability to minimize risks of loss. The relatively high predictability levels of tradable assets on NASDAQ and S&P500 is why investors prefer to pour money there. They consider them safer markets where they can expect guaranteed returns.

Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new market, and there is currently no to little empirical research done on them. The efforts of these researchers should be admired, and you can expect further research on cryptocurrency trading in the near future.

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A crypto airdrop is a good way to get free tokens

How do you find a crypto airdrop?

Danish YasinOct 17, 2018
zoommachine / Shutterstock

ICO drops are a good way to get started with cryptocurrency. You can practically invest in a project, without actually investing money into it. Basically, a crypto airdrop is an event, in which a project gives out free tokens to community members. This is seen as a good marketing strategy, because it attracts more participants to a project and allows them to have a stake in it.

An ICO airdrop can also be used to pump the value of the token of a project, by increasing its demand while keeping the supply limited. The strategy of employing a crypto airdrop to increase the marketing of the project and value of the coin is being used by numerous projects out there.

To participate in a crypto airdrop, you will need social media profiles on some of the most widely used social network platforms. The most commonly required profiles are that of Facebook, Twitter, and Telegram. The last one holds a special place in the crypto community and almost all ICO projects have a Telegram profile, through which they actively communicate with the community.

Are airdrops a scam?

Airdrops have gained a lot of attention in the last year and with it, they have also gained considerable critics. Many consider them scams and think that such a marketing strategy is ineffective. However, for many projects, airdrops have managed to successfully raise community engagement for a project.

But, there have been projects, which were unable to produce the desired results, despite having a good crypto airdrop. Ubex and Shivom are some of the projects that were unable to reach their hardcaps, despite enjoying a significant increase in their community members after airdrops.

There have also been instances of people promoting a purported airdrop that was actually a phishing scam or other fraud.

To conclude, airdrops are not necessarily a scam, they are a legitimate marketing strategy. However, their effectiveness has been questioned by many.

Finding a Good Airdrop

There are a number of scam airdrops out there and it is important to be careful while participating in an airdrop. Participating in a scam airdrop may result in becoming a victim of identity theft. Your data may be leaked and used for malicious purposes. Moreover, if an airdrop is asking for the private keys of your wallet then it is probably a scam.

Providing your private keys to a company means that you are putting your wallet at risk and run a strong chance of losing the tokens in it. Therefore, never send your private keys and be on the look out for companies that ask for them, they are most likely scams. Use your public keys instead, they do not put your wallet as risk.

Keeping the above discussion in mind, you may require assistance in finding legitimate airdrops in which you can participate. Our airdrop list contains a list of airdrops complete with information about the project including their whitepaper, website, and social media links. You can use the list to find out about new airdrops and find out what would be required to participate, before actually participating in it.

Finding legitimate airdrops can be as difficult as finding honest ICOs, therefore, always be careful and do your due diligence before participating in any of them.

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A smug ICO expert

The Conundrum of ICOBench and its TOP 20 Experts

Karnika E. Yashwant, KEY Difference MediaOct 16, 2018

There have been decades of study performed to discover the hallmarks of expertise and how it can be achieved. Most scientists in the field now agree that there are two distinct forms of intellectual expertise: heuristics and biases (HB) and natural decision-making (NDM). While these two schools of thought differ in major and important ways, both rely on objectively successful completion of tasks within a domain as prerequisites for being deemed an expert.

How do we define expertise?

In the crypto space, we can use the legal definition of what an “expert” opinion is and why it must be admissible as proof of expertise. According to Odgers and Richardson, the traditional rules of evidence in Australian courts include:

  • The opinion must be relevant to a fact in issue.
  • The expert must disclose the facts (usually assumed) upon which the opinion is based.
  • The facts upon which the opinion is based must be capable of proof by admissible evidence.
  • Evidence must be produced to prove the assumed facts upon which is the basis of the opinion.

I’ve researched deeper on the phenomenon of ICO “experts” cropping overnight and came up with amusing findings. Most of today’s top ICO experts are average people who decided to start advising ICOs within the past year or two.

Experts don’t seem to have any special knowledge except they were invited by an organization or a group hoping to launch an ICO based on what they deem is this personality’s influence in the crypto/blockchain field.

A track record of rating ICOs for over 3 months apparently becomes acceptable as “expertise”. Some of them were part of some ICO, but at that point, they were clueless about how ICOs work. It’s only after that they established their knowledge about them.

Those were observations of insiders in the field and I’m not about to name names except when these early ICO advisors make you think that they are super specialists and you “don’t belong in the same group with them”. That is the biggest deception they spread.

The funny part is, only a few ICO advisors could be called well-known and popular but ICO founders are led to believe that their ICO’s success depends on the popularity of an ICO advisor/expert, which could not be further from the truth. But as things stand, you can apparently advise your way to popularity, as the current crop advisors seem to be doing.

How does ICOBench choose its TOP 20 experts?

Here’s the thing, there’s some “mystery” in the way ICOBench ranks the experts in the “TOP 20” and so on. Currently, it’s based on the success score where for each ongoing or upcoming ICO, a person (or an agency) receives a number of points that is calculated based on the ratings of the ICOs that they are a part of.

The problem is, the top 30 guys all have something like 40-70 projects or around that range under their belt. Make no mistake, after I reached out to ICOBench, they modified their “Experts” listing page based on “weighted score”, but still the Top 20 and Top 10 are based on the Success Score. The ICO space has been active for around 2 years now or an equivalent of 24 months of existence.

Let me show you how this expert rating CANNOT possibly work by simple calculation if you will bear with me.

A typical ICO takes anywhere from 4-6 months from start to full completion. Even in 2017, it was taking at least 4 months for full completion. Considering 5 months as an average, we are looking at 10 active projects at all times for an ICO Advisor assuming he takes up 2 new projects every month.

From my experience, if you are hands-on involved to advise, assist, and consult the ICO, reviewing all activities and so on, it can take up to 40 hours a week – as a “working advisor”. For just advising and consulting for Q & A, maybe 20 hours a month.

Considering an average of 30 hours, that’s 300 hours a month of advisory time there. THEN the rest of the time for learning, marketing themselves, living a life, and so on. I know we all work for 300 hours a month, but we just don’t get to work on advisory all those 300 hours.

These computations reveal the fact, that these top advisors/experts are less “knowledgeable” as they never really advised the ICOs, which would be impossible as we have deduced from the computation, but just had the name to the list and may be helped with a thing or two.

I have spoken in recent days with many ICO founders who had reached out to me saying they did not get any value or directions or assistance of any kind from the “top advisors” and wanted my assistance. Of course, I cannot do more than 2 advisories at one time (not 2 per month, but 2 active advisories at one time irrespective of how many months I’ve been at it), so I have to decline. Investors depend on expert’s rating to judge who the “best” is.

Bottom line, it’s my kind suggestion to not just consider the number of ICOs these “experts” are part of, but to decide their competence by the way they actually served the ICOs and in the manner they are rating the ICOs. I hope it’s taken as a positive suggestion for the betterment of the community by all rating sites who adopt a similar calculation.

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Hate speech has no place in the crypto community

Anti-Semitic, Violent, and Bullying Activity Crawls into Crypto Community

On YavinOct 15, 2018
Live2Create / Shutterstock

One of the best things about crypto is the coming together of people all over the world whose goals are to make it a better place. Every race, religion, nationality, and language is represented in the crypto universe. As a member of the crypto community, it is extremely troubling when in this world we call our own, we see instances of racism, bigotry, and sexual violence.

Warning: The images in this article contain racist, anti-Semitic, and violent sexual imagery. They are offensive and may be considered Not Safe For Work.

Nazi symbols and other offensive imagery in Telegram sticker pack

We recently discovered these stickers on the messaging platform Telegram Many people throughout the crypto world rely on Telegram to communicate their thoughts and ideas in a place of discourse that should be free of hatred and narrow-mindedness. Unfortunately, we are not so lucky. These disgusting images should not have been allowed to be added to the platform, but this goes to show that either Telegram does not screen their user created content, or they simply do not care. 

This is what happened when one person called out the admin of a group for allowing such content:

Name calling, belittling, and bullying, just for trying to remove insensitive material. We have also received reports that one Telegram group took a stand by banning this content and the users who posted it, only to be subject to similar attacks and bullying.

I am calling out all Telegram founders, managers, group admins, and staff to fight against such behavior. Because this behavior is not just limited to this sticker pack. We’ve found several other packs that have similarly offensive material, in addition to anti-black memes and sexually violent images.

Offensive sticker packs on Telegram

We in the crypto community have a duty to keep one another in check and to not let this kind of behavior slide. As a Jew whose family suffered a terrible fate in the Holocaust, I especially take offense to the Nazi and anti-Semitic imagery we have recently seen. I know what it is like to be the subject of such hate. And it angers me that this imagery is being used on Telegram, and encouraging people to bully those who would call it out. If we do not speak out against this, it just welcomes these actions again, but maybe next time towards another minority group. Today it’s Jews, tomorrow it’s you. It is important to remember that the Nazis also persecuted the Romani people, the LGBTQ community, and people with developmental disabilities. Furthermore, tolerating imagery related to one hate group only emboldens other hate groups to act openly as well. Hitler and the Nazi symbols not only show hatred towards Jews, but are a symbol of hatred towards humanity. It is all our responsibility to call these people out for the cowards they truly are, and let the world know that we will not sit idly by and let these people and their ideals win.

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